"We have to be straight with people about the choices ahead, because if we don’t lead this change on the front-foot, we’ll be forced into it anyway as food shocks intensify."
Professor Paul Behrens
Key points from the briefing
Food system failure is a direct national security risk. When food systems break, the result is empty shelves, price spikes, unrest and political instability — and the UK is woefully unprepared.
The climate that gave us reliable harvests is gone. Compound extremes — heat, drought, floods and fires striking together across global breadbaskets — are becoming normal. For example, before climate change, a major corn harvest failure might happen once every 16 years, but at 1.5°C, this can be expected once every 3 years, and every other year at 2°C.
The UK is already feeling it. Three of the five worst cereal harvests on record have occurred this decade. Over 80% of UK farmers say climate change seriously threatens their livelihoods.
We are dangerously dependent on imports. The UK imports 40–50% of its food, much from climate-stressed regions like the Mediterranean. Extreme weather abroad now directly drives food prices and hardship at home.
Rising food prices are a social fault line. About one-third of food price inflation in 2023 was driven by extreme weather. When families cannot afford food, societies destabilise.
Our food system is undermining its own security. It is a major driver of greenhouse gas emissions, habitat destruction, water and air pollution, freshwater depletion, resistance to antibiotics and pandemic risk.
A food system transformation is unavoidable - and beneficial. We must shift to healthy, plant-rich diets, cut waste, improve production and make our farming methods more resilient.
Switching to a plant-rich diet is the biggest lever for improving food security. Animal agriculture uses about 85% of UK farmland. Moving to plant-rich diets could cut agricultural emissions by about 60%, free up an area of land almost the size of Scotland, and allow the UK to feed more people from less land.
A plant-rich diet is a win-win for people, farmers and nature. Health improves, NHS costs fall, water and air quality improve, flood risk drops, rural jobs grow, and farmers’ incomes can rise if supported to deliver food, nature and climate security.
The choice is stark. Lead the transition now, or be forced into it later by food shocks, rising prices and instability.
