Claim: "The film's headline 4°C rests on a scenario that has been dropped."
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Incorrect. The film says warming is likely to reach 2°C by around 2050, with a “small but very real risk that we could hit 4°C by the end of the century”. That risk comes from the path the world is on today, not an old scenario. The UN’s latest assessment puts 4°C within the range of where current policies could take us.
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The UN’s latest Emissions Gap Report (October 2026) finds the world heading for around 2.8°C by 2100 on today’s policies, with temperatures still rising after that. It finds a 1 in 10 chance of exceeding 3.4°C, with a possible range reaching 4.5°C.
4°C isn’t the most likely outcome, but it is a real possibility, exactly as the film presents it. Good risk communication means being clear about both. Who would accept a 1 in 10 chance of disaster on a plane, a bridge or a nuclear plant? We shouldn’t accept it for the climate we all depend on.
Some critics point to an IPCC scenario that has been dropped. Known as RCP8.5, it was an extreme pathway that assumed a huge expansion of coal use and very little climate action. It is no longer considered plausible and has been left out of the new scenarios for the IPCC’s next assessment. Today’s current-policy projections, which still put 4°C within range, don’t rely on it.
