Claim: "Frightening numbers like 4 billion deaths are not actual forecasts"
Quick Reply
They aren’t meant to be. When the stakes are this high, the question isn’t just what’s most likely to happen, but what could happen. That’s how every serious risk is managed, from insurance to aviation to national security.
A risk doesn’t need to be certain to be taken seriously. It needs to be possible and catastrophic.
More Detail
The “4 billion deaths” figure doesn’t appear in the film. In his full briefing, Professor Montgomery quoted the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ risk assessment, and was careful to say there could be more than 4 billion deaths, not that there would be.
Assessing worst cases is precisely what actuaries do. Their conclusion is stark: on current policies, the global economy could face a 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090, with mass mortality, mass displacement and conflict becoming more likely.
We wouldn’t board a plane, build a bridge or run a nuclear plant on the basis of the most likely outcome alone. We plan for what could go wrong. Climate risk deserves the same seriousness.
