View: "UK targets are world-leading"
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The UK's 2035 and 2040 emissions targets are indeed among the most ambitious in the world.
However, meeting those targets requires much faster action this decade. As we explain here, progress outside the power sector remains limited, with emissions from transport, housing and agriculture largely flatlining over the last three years. Meeting ambitious longer term goals will not be possible without bold action across the whole of the economy.
The problem is that the UK's near-term targets, covering the period to 2032, were set more than a decade ago using the scientific understanding available at the time. They require emissions cuts of only around 1% per year from 2025 - and even exclude international aviation and shipping, and the emissions from manufacturing that we have offshored.
It should also be noted that even though the UK's 2035 and 2040 targets are significantly more ambitious, many scientists argue that they still fall short of what is needed given the latest understanding of the threat we face.
But the immediate challenge is the lack of whole-of-economy action now. In short, there is a mismatch between the UK's near-term and longer-term targets. While the long-term goals are relatively ambitious, the near-term pathway does not put the UK on track to achieve them.
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The UK’s near-term targets, covering the vital years to the end of 2032 - the 4th and 5th "Carbon Budgets" - were devised over a decade ago. Since then, scientific understanding of climate risks has moved on significantly, including:
The UN’s 2019 landmark SR1.5 report clarifying the dangers of exceeding 1.5°C
Growing evidence that some climate impacts are hitting us up to 25 years earlier than expected - as Professor Hayley Fowler set out in her expert briefing.
Growing understanding of tipping point risks, including the potential collapse of systems such as the AMOC ocean circulation. Professor Tim Lenton warns that AMOC collapse would have severe implications for agriculture in the UK
The 4th and 5th Carbon Budgets also did not fully anticipate the extent to which emissions associated with UK consumption would be shifted overseas. As a result, the UK's near-term targets only require cuts of an average of 1% a year to the end of 2032. The UK is already comfortably on track to meet this unambitious target without whole-of economy action. Government is relatively unconstrained by these targets in the short run and is able to cut funding for insulation or nature-friendly farming, and permit expansion in airports and data centres.
Reducing emissions only in line with the 5th Carbon Budget will leave the UK facing an unrealistically steep and difficult reduction to meet the 6th Carbon Budget from 2033.
The following animation explains the issue.
